Technology should not be judged by where it is, but by where it will go

To catch a fly, one needs to aim not where the fly is, but where the fly will go to. Similarly, it is naïve to judge a technology be where it is, we should instead consider where it will go to.

It’s not easy to catch a fly, because it is not easy to know where it would fly to. For if it were easy to know where a fly would go to, then it would be easy to catch a fly, and there wouldn’t be many flies left, they would all get caught, by inquisitive toddlers, irritated humans, and hungry frogs.

The same way, it is not easy to know what would become of a technology. Granted, it might not even go anywhere. But dismissing them outright is like judging early computers by saying that they’re useless since they cost a million and occupy a room.

But that still doesn’t justify judging a technology be its current limitations. If enough humans put their mind at it, the technology will become what is needed of it. Of course, we can’t break the speed of light, but blockchains are not a physical technology – they are a social construct. The value of a bitcoin is what people are willing to pay for it. Such social constructs – money, celebrity, laws – are not constrained by physics, they are constrained by game theory.

And game theory says that if enough people agree that the ownership of a house lies in the bytes recorded in a certain blockchain, then it will be.

Technology moves slowly, at the speed of minds, one mind at a time. It used to move a funeral at a time, but we have become better hosts, and now it moves faster. But it is still slow. But we shouldn’t mistake slow for dead, it takes just a little bit of heat for frozen water to find it’s flow.

To catch a fly, one needs to aim not where the fly is, but where it will go.